Analysis on labor force participation rate and labor supply in the future in china 中國人口勞動參與率與未來勞動力供給分析
Using probit model , the decision of off - farm employment was analyzed in chapter four , accompany with the analysis of decision on labor participation and agricultural work participation 第4章對健康與非農(nóng)就業(yè)參與率的關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究。作為比較,本文選取了總和參與率和種植勞動參與率的決定因素進(jìn)行了分析。
So supply of the labor force in any period is the result of labor force producing of a past time . generally speaking , the supply of labor is relevant to the rate of participant in short tern and to population scale in long tern 任何一階段的勞動力供給都是前一時期勞動力生產(chǎn)的結(jié)果,一般而言,勞動力供給數(shù)量在短期內(nèi)是與勞動參與率相關(guān)的,變化不會很大;在長期內(nèi),則主要由人口規(guī)模決定。
Thirdly , the paper analyzes the reasons of un - balance of demand and supply from the aspect of quality and construction , and argues that the situation of demand and supply is characterized by total surplus and structural deficiency . t he large scale of population and the high rate of labor participation lead to that the total supply surpass the demand . the capital structure , the improving technology and capital - dominance industrialization way result in the deficient demand , so they become the key reasons of unbalance situation 再次,從總量和結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面分析我國勞動力供求失衡的原因和影響因素,認(rèn)為我國勞動力供求態(tài)勢的特征是總量過剩與結(jié)構(gòu)性短缺并存;從供給角度看,人口規(guī)模過大以及勞動參與率高是勞動力供給總量大于需求的主要原因:從需求角度看,資本構(gòu)成、技術(shù)進(jìn)步和資本深化的工業(yè)化方式是勞動力需求不足進(jìn)而造成供求失衡的關(guān)鍵原因;改革前,我國勞動力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)移嚴(yán)重滯后,這與我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略有密切聯(lián)系;改革后,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整使就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)偏差得到一定的矯正,勞動力供求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的矛盾有所緩和。