Lyapunov exponent depict the discrete extent of chaotic dynamic system . there propose an estimation of one step prediction error based on lyapunov exponent , the estimation express the reliability of prediction numerically . at the same time , in order to improve the predictive precision it drew out an error complement methods creatively to correct one step prediction Lyapunov指數定量刻畫混沌離散動力系統的平均發散程度,基于lyapunov指數作出了一步預測的誤差估計,以此來定量反映預測的可靠性;根據奇異吸引子流形的性質,創造性的提出殘差補充法,對預測值作出修正以降低誤差,提高預測精確性。