導讀:不知道這篇文章發出去會不會被別人噴死，BBC新聞通過歷史經驗推測今年的冠軍球隊是比利時，并且分析的很合理，不知道你們怎么看……
Thirty-two countries, one winner.
32個國家，一個冠軍。
But how can you predict the team that will lift the World Cup in Moscow on 15 July?
但是，是否有辦法提前知道，今年7月15日，哪支球隊會在莫斯科捧起大力神杯？
By looking at the trends, statistics and patterns from tournaments past, BBC Sport has eliminated 31 nations and concluded which one will be crowned world champions.
通過分析過去歷屆賽事的趨勢、數據及規律，BBC體育（BBC Sports）已經淘汰了31個國家，將冠軍鎖定一支球隊。
Here are the things that the 2018 World Cup winners must do...
要想將2018年世界杯擁入懷中，這支隊伍必須具備以下幾個條件……
Be seeded
種子隊伍
Since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams in 1998, all of the eventual champions have been seeded. Indeed, the last non-seeded winners were in 1986, when Argentina were carried to the trophy by Diego Maradona and his ’hand of God’. In one move, we have removed 24 teams in the competition and are left with eight.
1998年開始，世界杯決賽圈參賽隊伍擴展到32支，而所有最終奪冠的隊伍都是當時的種子隊伍。歷史上最近一次非種子隊伍奪冠發生在1986年，當時馬拉多納（Diego Maradona，馬勒當拿）的“上帝之手”將阿根廷隊送上了冠軍寶座。憑借這條規律，我們就已經淘汰了24支球隊，競爭范圍縮小到下面8支球隊。
Don’t be the hosts
不要做東道主
Russia benefit from a 44-year tradition of the host nation being seeded. With a world ranking of 66, they would not be one of the top eights if they were not staging the party.
俄羅斯這次之所以會成為種子球隊，還要感謝一項已有44年歷史的傳統——東道主自動成為種子球隊。作為世界排名66的隊伍，如果不是今年主辦比賽，他們本沒有機會進入這8支候選隊伍之列。
Hosting the World Cup, though, is not the route to success it once was. The first 11 editions of the tournament, from 1930 to 1978, produced five home winners. Since then, the past nine tournaments have seen the hosts crowned champions only once - France in 1998.
然而與過去不同，今天的東道主已經不再是通往成功的捷徑。在1930年至1978年舉行的前11屆世界杯比賽中，共有5次是東道主笑到最后。而從那之后的九屆賽事中，只有1998年的法國以東道主身份成功捧杯。
While it was never likely that the United States, Japan, South Korea or South Africa were going to win the World Cup, Italy in 1990, Germany in 2006 and Brazil four years ago were not helped by being the host nation.
與此同時，美國、日本、韓國及南非都沒有在主辦世界杯時奪冠，而曾經做過東道主的意大利、德國、巴西分別在1990、2006和2014年登頂時也都不是主辦國。
Keep it tight
加強防守
In the 32-team era, none of the five champions have conceded more than four goals over their seven games.
進入32支球隊參賽的時代后，至今為止的5支冠軍隊伍里，沒有一支在決賽圈的奪冠路上失球總數超過四個。
Looking at our seven remaining sides, Poland had by far the leakiest defence during qualifying, conceding 1.4 goals per game.
現在再看一下我們七支候選隊伍，本屆預選賽階段中防守最弱的是波蘭隊，平均每場比賽失球1.4個。
Germany and Portugal conceded 0.4 per game, Belgium and France 0.6, Brazil 0.61 and Argentina 0.88.
其他隊伍中，德國隊與葡萄牙隊平均每場失球0.4個，比利時與法國0.6個，巴西0.61個，阿根廷則為0.88個。
Be from Europe
需要來自歐洲
World Cup winners have only ever come from Europe and South America. Until recently, European teams did not travel well, but Spain’s success in South Africa and Germany’s triumph in Brazil bucked the trend.
目前為止的世界杯冠軍都出自歐洲及南美洲。但其實很長一段時間內，歐洲球隊的表現沒有那么搶眼，西班牙隊在南非的成功和德國隊在巴西的勝利扭轉了這一勢頭。
European tournaments, though, almost always produce home winners. Of the 10 competitions to be hosted by countries from Europe, only one has been won by an outsider, and you have to go all the way back to 1958 for Brazil’s win in Sweden.
不過在歐洲舉辦世界杯時，東道主的奪冠幾率非常高。在歐洲舉辦過的10屆世界杯賽事中，只有一屆冠軍旁落歐洲之外，而且還需要追溯到1958年的瑞典世界杯，當時巴西笑到了最后。
Have the best goalkeeper
擁有最好的守門員
You might think goalscorers win World Cups, but only twice since 1982 have the champions provided the winner of the Golden Boot - Brazil’s Ronaldo in 2002 and David Villa of Spain involved in a four-way tie in 2010.
你可能以為世界杯是靠進球的球員贏來的，但1982年后，只有兩屆冠軍奪冠時隊中擁有最佳射手——2002年巴西的羅納爾多（Ronaldo，朗拿度）及2010年西班牙的大衛.比利亞（David Villa，韋拿）。
World Cup winners are actually more accurately defined by their goalkeeper, with four of the past five Golden Glove awards for the best keeper in the tournament going to the number one of the team that lifts the trophy.
其實，歷屆世界杯冠軍更準確說來是由守門員決定的。過去五屆比賽中，有四屆的大力神杯是由最佳門將所在國家隊捧起的。
Of the remaining four teams, it’s not hard to imagine any of Manuel Neuer (Germany), Hugo Lloris (France) or Thibaut Courtois (Belgium) being named the best goalkeeper this time around. It seems more of a stretch that Portugal’s Rui Patricio will walk away with the Golden Glove.
四支球隊中，德國隊的諾伊爾（Manuel Neuer，紐亞）、法國的洛里斯（Hugo Lloris）和比利時的庫爾圖瓦（Thibaut Courtois，高圖爾斯）都是本屆最佳守門員的有力人選，而葡萄牙的帕特里西奧（Rui Patricio，柏迪斯奧）相比之下就沒那么熱門了。
Have the experience
經驗豐富
World Cup-winning squads are steadily getting more experienced, a trend that began when the finals expanded to 32 teams in 1998.
1998年決賽圈擴展到32支球隊之后出現了一種趨勢，世界杯的奪冠球隊正變得越來越有經驗。
On that occasion, champions France had a squad that averaged 22.77 caps per player. Four years ago, Germany boasted 42.21 each. In between, there was a gradual rise - Brazil averaged 28.04 in 2002, Italy 32.91 in 2006 and Spain 38.30 in 2010.
從這一點看，1998年法國隊奪冠時每位球員平均代表國家隊出賽場次為22.77，而四年前的冠軍德國隊將這一數據拉高到42.21。在這之間，奪冠球隊的初賽經驗逐漸增加。巴西隊在2002年奪冠時球員代表國家隊出場次數平均為28.04，2006年意大利為32.91，2010年西班牙為38.30。
When our three remaining teams named their final squads, France’s average caps was down at 24.56, while Germany’s was at 43.26 and Belgium’s 45.13.
目前還在我們名單里的三支隊伍中，法國隊平均出場次數最少，為24.56次，德國隊為43.26次，比利時為45.13次。
Don’t be the defending champions
不要是衛冕冠軍
The World Cup is hard to defend. Not since Brazil won back-to-back tournaments in 1958 and 1962 has a team lifted the trophy twice in a row.
世界杯很難衛冕。在巴西隊于1958和1962年連續兩次奪冠后，還沒有一支隊伍可以成功衛冕。
In fact, since that Brazil double, the 13 defending champions have only got past the quarter-finals on two occasions - Argentina in 1990 and Brazil in 1998, though Brazil did finish fourth in 1974 when the format was two group stages, then a final. In the past four tournaments, the defending champions have been eliminated in the group stage on three occasions.
而1962年的13支衛冕冠軍球隊中，只有兩支在沖擊衛冕之年通過了四分之一決賽，1990年的阿根廷隊和1998年的巴西隊。另外巴西隊還曾在1974年拿到過第四，但當時決賽階段只分兩個小組，小組賽階段過后便是決賽。在過去的四屆賽事中，有三屆的衛冕冠軍在小組賽階段便被淘汰出局。
Germany have an excellent recent World Cup pedigree. In the past nine tournaments - including three as West Germany - they have won twice, reached three more finals and finished third on two more occasions.
本屆衛冕冠軍德國最近的世界杯賽績極佳。在過去九屆賽事（三次以西德參賽）中，他們共兩次奪冠，另外還有三次打進決賽，兩次獲得第三。
However, when it comes to winning it again in Russia, history is against them.
然而如果想在俄羅斯成功衛冕，歷史恐怕不會站在他們這邊。
So, there you have it. Belgium are going to win the World Cup. Unless someone else does. Which is possible....
這樣看來，結果就在你眼前了。比利時將贏得世界杯。除非另外一支球隊奪冠。當然這是有可能的……
